Pakistan and Future

Few months back I wrote an article on pkpolitics.com with the title “The Battle is On — Political Forces are on the Offensive” , let me quote a paragraph from the article

However despite all the defeats currently establishment is experiencing, one thing thing they are happy about is they are back in the position which suits them most. Although they are still struggling to get out of the woods specially with regards to BB’s murder , loss of control over the funds and perhaps in future some sort of prosecution, yet they are very happy to have been spared by the disgruntled jihadi elements as well as agencies getting back to their original business of spying on politician, running propaganda machinery and remain faceless.

The most important aspect of the offensive by the political forces was their lesson learnt in the past and being comrade in arms against the military mafia of Pakistan. At the same time the most important aspect of the “defense” of “establishment” was their faceless position and vulnerability of PPP being in the power. After the death of Benazir Bhutto , establishment knew that they are now dealing with a inexperienced and immature commander-in-chief leading the democratic forces in the face of Zardari. The tables have therefore been turned now and “The Battle is still on — Establishment is on the Offensive” , I however would like to talk about the recent happenings in the Punjab and establishment’s propaganda and strategy to use them against the politicians and democratic forces.

First of all let me take a look at the happenings in Pakistan (particularly in Punjab) in the context of realpolitik.

1. PPP vs PML-N : One thing I find particularly amusing is the myth that democracy means consensus of opinion , this myth is propagated by the establishment’s “philosophers” using the phrases and words like “ideology of Pakistan”, “Higher national interest” and “danger to the very existence of Pakistan”. The reality is that democracy is about “difference of opinion” and two party system where two major parties represent the two diverging views and will of the people is usually a better democracy. In Pakistan during the 90’s we evolved into a two party system and were in an excellent democratic condition in 1999 when a right wing party was in full majority to implement it’s agenda , the elections in 2008 showed that potentially after 8 or 10 years of rule by PML-N (centre-right ) there was great opportunity for PPP (centre-left) to come in power. There is no harm in PPP and PML-N fighting and struggling to gain power and gain the people’s trust.
2. Zardari vs Sharif : Again establishment likes to propagate the myth that personality conflict is against democratic principles. There is nothing wrong in a democracy where leaders have personality clash and are against each other. The fight between Zardari and Sharif and for that matter in 90’s between BB and Sharif were not the failure of democracy. If they had any impact it might be said it was positive.
3. Consolidation of Power: Using all the available means and oppurtunities to consolidate the power is part of the politics. When a party or person uses the illegal means and opportunistic behavior , he or she has to pay a political price. In the current scenario Zardari used the opportunity to overthrow the government of Punjab, that gives him sometime to consolidate his power however in the long run (as most of the political pundits agree) he will have to pay a dear political price for this action.

Update:

So in a nutshell the current happenings in Punjab are quite natural and simple political process and part of democracy. Although it seems that Asif Zardari has taken the extreme step of dismissing Punjab government , however I think that it was more a reactionary action than a proactive one. Zardari (perhaps on account of his inexperience) got a little bit scared of the initiatives taken by Sharifs in the recent past. It seems that he has fallen in the trap prepared by Sharifs. We must understand that all of this is part of political process and democracy , like all other democratic nations we will have to learn that democracy is about gaining the power and people’s trust , for this both Zardari and Sharif are entitled to take the actions they want. Agitation , dharna , strikes , and demonstration of political force is part of democracy. Just like Zardari was entitled to take the step of dismissing Sharif’s government in Punjab , Sharifs are entitled to demonstrate their political power on the streets.  There is nothing wrong with it, but there is only one problem with it though and that is like a cunning fox establishment is keenly waiting for the oppurtunate moment to wrap up the political process and that’s where democratic forces need to remain on guard. 

Now then , can establishment regain their space in the current political scenario in Pakistan?. To me it seems that more Nawaz Sharif looses the ground , more establishment takes it. However relevant point is that can Zardari survive the onslaught of Sharifs and centre-right?. Although at this point it will be considered absurd if I suggest that “Nawaz Sharif and Zardari will join hands pretty soon “. 

I wish I could write few words about the judicial mess before it clears out itself .. but more to come later