Pakistan and Future

Let me start with some history. During the fateful days of Musharraf’s re-election , most of the people believed that PPP has struck a deal with Musharraf to allow him to continue as president and by not resigning from the assemblies they have actually given some credence to General’s election from the old assemblies. The meeting between BB and Musharraf was painted as if PPP is next PML-Q and BB will be the new Jamali. There were two schools of thought.

1. There were several people including very respectable analysts and political leaders and civil society leaders who believed that General Musharraf was very weak in August 2007 , specially after the restoration Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudary. And if at that time all the political forces has joined together to kick him out of the “Presidential House” , it would have had been an easy task. As they say it was a matter of “AIK DHAKKA AUR” , however nobody knew how they will give “AIK DHAKKA” , the only practical action they suggested was to resign from the assemblies at the time of President’s election. And then come on roads for agitation. 3rd November was very far off at that time. And I can bet that most of these analysts have never imagined “a 3rd of November” occuring.  Even the great analysts like Dr. Shahid never thought of an action like 3rd of November.

2. The second school of thought , which I think consisted of only person Benazir , was to allow the General the time till he become so weak that he can be kicked off from the president house by even an insignificant worker like Farooq Naik . So she kept on giving time and some space to General Musharraf until he committed on holding a “free and fair” election. Nobody knew that the elections will be “free and fair”, however I think now one person knew that they will be “free and fair” and she was “Benazir”.

So the purpose of the above example is to show how sometimes things are painted – intentionally by agencies - and unintentionally by even sincere analysts and leaders.

Now let me come to the real issue , everybody agrees that if PPP backs off from the commitment to restore judiciary , PPP is going to commit a political suicide. However interesting thing is that only person who does not know this is Asif Zardari , isn’t it a naive thinking?

Let’s assume the worst case scenario in which Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudary is not restored , PML(N) resigns from cabinet and sits in opposition , and MQM + PML-Q become part of the government and Genereal (Retd.) Musharraf remains in the president house.

What Asif Zardari is going to get in exchange? Difficult question to answer, isn’t it? Let me guess.

1.  American support? As mentioned in the last post , it is believed that US is against the restoration of CJ and wants Musharraf to continue as president. Hence if Asif Zardari obliges Americans PPP government will get similar support from US as General (Retd.) Musharraf has been getting since 2001. Sounds reasonable? NO , so why US does not want CJ to be restored ? As they say in Urdu (kia Chief Justice nay america kee bhains khooly hai), and why US will keep supporting Musharraf as they say in Urdu (kia Musharraf america kay phoophay da puttar hai). No US has no interest in Musharraf and for that matter CJ , Musharraf stays or not , US know they need now to deal with Kiyani and PPP , Musharraf is a history for them now. Remember Bush administration will not be there in 2009 , and no new administration wants the extra baggage from Bush.

2. Smooth Government for next 5 years? With a deal with Musharraf (i.e. Establishment/Army) , PPP will have a smooth sailing government for next 5 years. Does it sound right? NO , Establishment has never been friendly to PPP , and let me say that Yousuf Raza Gailani as PM and shouting of Jeeay Bhutto slogans are not the actions that are establishment friendly.

3. It is assumed that if PPP does not strike deal with Musharraf , he (Musharraf) will dismiss the government using 58-2(B), so PPP is trying to avoid any clash with Musharraf. Well this reason sounds much better than above ones. However in the constitution it is written that if the president dismisses the government using 58-2(B) he needs to send a reference to Supreme Court after the dissmissal and SC need to decide with in 30 days. Do you think CJ+13 other judges will decide in favor of General (Retd.) Musharraf? And does Musharraf/establishment have any courage to dismiss the government when they did not have the courage to do rigging in elections?

So what is then the reasoning of actions by PPP which are causing confusion about her stance on judiciary. Let me discuss one by one.

1. Why PPP proposed a committee to discuss the modalities for restoration of judges when it was already agreed in Murree Accord  that they will be restore by the simple resolution. Well it is hard to second guess what the committee is going to do however it is obvious that PPP does have misgivings and reservations about a lot of judges who vicimised them during the last 12 years. PPP will definitely like to see how these judges respond to that and can they (Judges) give any assurances that PPP will not be victimised on the behest of establishment in the future?

2. Why Asif Zardari is complaining about the judges? We must not forget that our judiciary changed only after 9th of March , even at the time of signing Charter of Democracy it was considered that judges are biased and playing in the hands of establishment. Now obviously there are a lot of complaints from PPP about the actions of those judges in the past , however that is clear that PPP has to restore those judges but it wants to make these judges realize that they vicimised PPP.

3. Why there are signals about PPP having soft corner for the general. Like the statement of Ahmed Mukhtar. I would guess that all of this is absolutely wrong, in fact I believe that PPP is more adverse towards Musharraf and vice versa then Nawaz Sharif.  Let me give only one example , the appointment of Yousaf Raza Gilani as PM is a bigger slap on the face Musharraf then PML(N) coming with black bands. I think PML(N) saved Musharraf from embarrasment by not appointing Javed Hashmi as the minister.  I also think that all of these statements are actually the work of agencies. BTW this is the only work agencies are doing these days.

4. Why PPP will bring MQM on board? Well simply PPP needs sometime in Sind before they put the MQM at their right position. MQM is really afraid , more afraid then they were in 1997. That is why MQM has  to raise slogans of “Zinda Hai BB Zinda Hai” in nine-zero. But rest assured PPP has a lot of scores to settle with MQM then any other party. And that is going to happen. If I am optimist then I would think that in 2009 MQM will be out of the scene completely. PPP will not do an effort like NS as he did in 1997, in fact MQM still remembers Naseerullah Babar more than anybody. So let us wait.

5. What about all the parties supporting PPP including PML-Q ?  Ans: Musharraf is a history, PML-Q politician need to stay alive. Some will go back in PPP , others will go in PML(N).

Conclusion:

As I said I am not 100% sure if there could be any surprises from Asif Zardari, I would have had been more confident if BB were in AZ shoes. But still I have more reasons to trust PPP than not to trust.