Pakistan and Future

 At the moment the million dollar question in Pakistan is whether PPP will honour its commitment to restore the judiciary as it was on 2nd November 2007.  In the last 8 years of oppressive regime , one thing happened to the psychology of the whole nation is to be sceptical about everything. Blunt lies on tv channels , frequent U-turns on every issue , ridiculously shameful backtracking from pledges , all of these have made the people completely cynical about everything that is happening in Pakistan.  That does not mean that the PPP stance is crystal clear about the judiciary issue and all the fears are unfounded. I would however like to look in-depth both the reasons for doubting the intentions of PPP and the reasons for having full trust in PPP. At the outset let me accept that I myself am not 100% sure what is going to happen to the honourable judges in the next 30 or so days, but you will find below the reasons for my trust.

Reasons for Doubt

From the very beginning it was painted as if PPP (even when BB was alive) , is not enthusiastic about the restoration of judiciary. There were several contradictory statements from BB herself about the Judges. When the NRO was stayed by the Supreme Court , BB got flared up and commented very harshly about the supreme court’s attitude towards Sindhi and Punjabi politicians. After November 3rd , journalist tried hard to get something for or against the deposed Judges from BB however she always avoided the question very cunningly. However then one day she went to Judges colony and declared that “Iftikhar Chaudary is real Chief Justice“. So in a nutshell BB left some sort of question mark on her stance towards the restoration of judges.

After the 18th February, Asif Zardari could not avoid the question of restoration of Judges and it is assumed that he had to agree to PML(N) demand to commit on restoration of judges in Murree Accord. The 6-point Murree Accord is very clear about the restoration of Judges. However after the formation of government, the stories keep coming out – even at the time of writing this article - that PPP is trying to back away from its commitment to restore judiciary. The whole argument about the mistrust is based on these stories coming out in the media every hour.  Let me list few of them and then sum up the argument.

1. Several lawyers talked about the “Minus One Formula” and rejected it. The origin of the formula is supposed to be from certain ministers of the government.

2. Aitzaz Ahsan in this episode of Bolta Pakistan talked about the “Qayyum Bill” which in his words originated from the President House. However it is somehow perceived as having been accepted by the PPP.

3. In the next episode of Bolta Pakistan , Nusrat Javed developed a complete story why PML-Q , MQM and all other parties supported Yousuf Raza Gillani in vote of confidence, and why Asif Zardari went to Nine-Zero to meet MQM.

4. Then the story came out about Ahmed Mukhtar declaring Pervez Musharraf as national asset and PPP’s desire to work with him.

5. Another story appeared in daily times about how Asif Zardari snubbed Aitzaz Ahsan on the question of restoration of judges.

6. Then another story appeared that Asif Zardari stated that the restoration of judges is linked with the constitutional reform package.

7. Then a high profile story from Ansar Abbasi about how one of the minister visited several judges to convince them not to pursue the cases against Musharraf after restoration.

So the whole argument goes like this. PPP is afraid of restoration of judges because being in the power it will be very difficult for them to accept an independent judiciary. PPP is also afraid that the restored judges may look into NRO. Besides that US wants Musharraf to continue as president and is exerting pressure on PPP not to restore Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudary. US thinks that restoration of CJ will cause Musharraf to go.  So if PPP does not restore the judges it is presumed that Nawaz Sharif will leave the government therefore PPP is bringing MQM and PML-Q on her side. Even in Punjab it is considered that Nawaz Sharif will not allow to make the government that is why the session of Punjab Assembly is not being called.

Now this looks straightforward. The end scenario is very simple.

1. PPP have government in centre with ANP, MQM , PML-Q, JUI and independents.

2. PPP have government in Punjab, Sind and Balochistan.

3. ANP have government in NWFP.

4. All the judges restored without CJ Iftikhar Chaudary.

5. Musharraf stays in president house.

6. Everybody lives happily ever after.

Sounds good. Doesn’t it?

 But wait… this is not the whole truth. In simple words this is just a conspiracy theory. I’ll discuss why all of the above reasoning is shallow without any substance and perhaps just the work of dreaded agencies to create as much confusion as possible.