Pakistan and Future

Below are the comments I posted earlier in some blogs.. I have decided post them here.

Justice Javed Iqbal (Head) — Balochistan — Pro General — Took oath as ACJ when Justice Iftikhar was suspended. Have open inclination towards General , although his remarks during the hearing will all be against the General , but the decision will be in favor of him.
Justice Abdul Hameed Dogar — Sind — Pro General — He was the one who administered oath of Javaid Iqbal. He was also acting election commissioner in 2005
Justice Muhammad Nawaz Abbasi — Punjab — Pro General — He is the dinner fame judge who had dinner with Attorney General and Jadoogar of Jaddah. He was also former law commission secratery
Justice Faqir Muhammad Khokar — Punjab — Pro General — He is also dinner fame judge and former law secratery.
Justice Nasirul Mulk — NWFP –Pro People — Chances are that he will be in favor of people of Pakistan. He is usually part of the bench with CJ he also took part in the missing person case. So apparently he will not scum to pressure.
Justice Raja Fayyaz Ahmed — Balochistan — Pro People –Chances are he will side with people. He recently was part of the bench which ordered release of all the political activist. Since he does not belong to punjab so seems will stand tall in case of pressure
Justice Syed Jamshed Ali — Punjab — 50-50 — He belongs to Punjab , therefore chances are that he may side with General. Although he sits with CJ in some bunches.
Justice Ghulam Rabbani — Sind — Pro People — He belongs to Sind, he was until recently an ad-hoc judge. Seems that CJ got him permanent after some hurdles from the government.
Justice Tasadduq Hussain Jilani — Punjab — 50-50 — Although he belongs to Punjab but is from Southren Punjab (Multan) , chances are that he will side with People.
Justice Khalil-ur-Rehman Ramday — Punjab — Pro People — He is one of rare upright judges from Punjab. I would feel very disappointed if he for any reasons side with General. That would though prove my theory.

So my bet is 6-4 in favor of General , a very very remote chance of 6-4 in favor of People.

Then on 05/10/2007 I posted following comments.

Although it seems that decision is 10-0 , however you will know tomorrow that the 4 judges were in favor of staying the elections , however other 6 lured them to just stop the declaration of the result. As a matter of fact , Justice Ramday yesterday issued the remarks “It is better to stay the election then removing a sitting president” , the reason is that the other judges from Javaid Iqbal’s camp were insisting on to give a go ahead to the election but if the judgment comes against president then remove him.
Let me tell you another interesting thing Javaid Iqbal may also be playing a confusing role by siding with the Ramday camp , that would have made it 5-5 , and the other at least 4 judges would have insisted to dismiss the petition altogether on technical reason buying the arguments from Sharif ud din Peerzadah, so the situation would have been like this.

4 Judges favoring a stay order against election.
1 Judge (Justice Javaid Iqbal) tentatively siding with Ramday camp, however causing confusion.
any 4 of the remaining 5 Judges insisting on dismissing the petition altogether.
1 Judge keeping quite but opining about delaying the matter.

So now there were 5 judges on both sides with perfect confusion caused by Javaid Iqbal hence they agreed to give a unanimous decision in declaring not to announce the results, remember this option was never discussed during the arguments and I am sure it would have been brought forward by Javaid Iqbal as a quid pro quo between the two camps.

So up until now the general has won over the two floating judges namely Justice Tassadaq and Justice Jamshed. But the problem is that general does not want to get the decision 6-4 , he wants the decision in his favor as 7-3 or 8-2 , therefore he has bought time by getting himself elected on the 6th of October (remember the unofficial results will be declared) and then try to pressurize the likes of Justice Ramday, Justice Fayyaz and Justice Ghulam Rabbani etc.

Now for the future i.e. 17th October hearing it seems that CJ may through a spinner by introducing Rana Bhagwan Das into the equation, 17th october is a very intersting date Rana Bhagwan Das may return by that time as he is on 3 weeks vacation.

My intitution tells me that result is going to be in favor of General as 7-3 now where Raja Fayyaz or Ghulam Rabbani crossing the lines in the coming days.

 And finally after the General has won the election today, with the current changed environment I would like to further add to this analysis in the second episode of this article.